2023-10-20
Author: Ben White
Bio: Principal Consultant Ben White has over 16 years’ experience working with a broad array of global clients to deliver Operational Resilience, Business Continuity programmes and Crisis Management solutions.
Author: Matthew Woods
Bio: Matthew Woods is a Software Engineer at 4C Strategies with specialist expertise in AI, Machine Learning, and the real-world application of emergent technology.
Author: Daniel Smith
Bio: Daniel Smith is a Software Engineer experienced in the development of all areas of Exonaut with a background in applying Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning models for the National Health Service in the UK.
In a world defined by constant change and unpredictable challenges, organizations are increasingly turning to Artificial Intelligence (AI) to fortify their resilience against disruptions.
This article explores the transformative role of AI in bolstering resilience, specifically within the domains of Business Continuity/Operational Resilience and Crisis Management.
AI, a rapidly advancing field, is a branch of computer science that focuses on creating systems capable of intelligent behavior and decision-making, often mimicking human cognitive functions.
Artificial Intelligence encompasses a broad spectrum of techniques and methodologies, each with distinct purposes and applications. Here are key components within AI:
AI vs. Machine Learning (ML): AI is a broader concept that encompasses machines’ ability to carry out tasks in an intelligent manner. Machine Learning, on the other hand, is a subset of AI that involves the development of algorithms allowing machines to learn patterns from data and make predictions. When we talk about AI and ML it is useful to break these concepts down into three key areas and here we explain a brief overview for each:
Optimization is a fundamental AI methodology that involves finding the best solution or outcome from a set of feasible options. It’s a technique used to maximize or minimize a specific objective function, which could be anything from cost, time, efficiency, or profit. In AI, optimization algorithms help in decision-making by determining the most optimal choices based on defined criteria.
Graph Theory is a branch of mathematics and computer science that deals with the study of graphs, which are mathematical structures used to represent relationships between objects.
In AI, graph theory plays a crucial role in modelling and solving various real-world problems where relationships and connections between entities are essential.
Probability is a foundational AI methodology that deals with uncertainty and likelihood. It quantifies the chance or likelihood of an event occurring, and it’s a crucial tool in decision-making and reasoning under uncertainty.
Predict a continuous target variable based on input features.
Categorize data into predefined classes or labels based on input features.
Group similar data points into clusters based on feature similarity, without predefined classes.
Estimate the probability of an event occurring based on prior knowledge and evidence.
Reduce the dimensionality of a dataset while retaining important information by identifying the most influential features.
Understanding and effectively applying these machine learning methodologies are crucial for building accurate and efficient machine learning models. Each methodology serves specific purposes and is suited to particular types of problems, providing a diverse toolkit for addressing a wide range of real-world challenges.
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To help further understand how we can leverage AI in resilience we are going to look at two key areas of resilience, Business Continuity / Operational Resilience and Crisis Management.
Business continuity aims to ensure organizations can sustain their operations regardless of unplanned events or crises. AI offers several crucial applications to enhance operational resilience:
Utilizing big data analytics and machine learning, AI can predict risk areas based on historical data, enabling proactive preventive measures.
AI algorithms forecast future events and analyze data to identify potential crises or disruptions, empowering efficient incident response planning.
AI algorithms detect irregularities in business continuity processes, enabling pre-emptive actions against potential attacks or system failures.
AI designs automated workflows by utilizing scenario and incident management algorithms, ensuring swift and consistent process execution.
AI-powered tools monitor diverse data sources in real-time, providing early warnings of potential disruptions through analysis of social media, news feeds, and other relevant data.
AI automates critical processes and tasks like incident response and disaster recovery, ensuring rapid and effective responses to minimize downtime and reduce costs.
AI simulates and tests various disaster scenarios, enabling businesses to identify weaknesses in their plans and make necessary improvements for better preparedness.
AI empowers management with more accurate and timely information, aiding in better decision-making processes, such as identifying alternative suppliers and logistics routes in supply chain disruptions.
Crisis management involves effectively responding to unexpected events or emergencies. AI plays a vital role in crisis management through various applications:
AI algorithms predict potential crises early by analyzing social media data and news feeds, aiding in the development of timely response plans.
AI supports decision-making processes during crisis management, ensuring fast and effective decisions.
AI detects trends and patterns by analyzing crisis data, optimizing intervention processes for greater effectiveness.
AI-based systems automatically detect specific events and provide automatic responses, enhancing response efficiency.
AI-powered chatbots with natural language processing capabilities provide users with swift and effective crisis-related information and assistance.
AI aids in data security by detecting and analyzing potential threats, enabling proactive measures to safeguard data.
AI supports crisis management processes with automated reporting and visualization capabilities, providing detailed insights about events and their impact.
AI’s continuous learning capabilities enable iterative improvements to crisis management systems, resulting in more accurate predictions and better performance over time.
Helping Shell better prepare for larger-scale, Tier-3 incidents that require an international response team.
Learn moreWhile AI offers remarkable benefits for enhancing resilience, businesses need to navigate challenges to harness its full potential. We spoke to one of our top Software Engineers at 4C Strategies, Matthew Woods, who provided his thoughts on the challenges ahead for implementing AI for Resilience:
Let me start by telling you that we have this saying, “garbage in, garbage out”, meaning that your AI will only be as good as the data you put in. So, let’s talk about data quality and its importance in training artificial intelligence (AI) models.
So, you might be thinking now that AI is the answer to all of life’s tricky questions—the magic key, as it were. Well, I am a pessimist, so my job is to bring everyone back down a bit. AI is excellent, but I am here to tell you about some problems you may face while implementing AI in your business and some solutions to these problems.
If we take, for example, a hypothetical dataset. We have someone who twisted their ankle in the dark, someone who has inhaled smoke and someone who has had an allergic reaction. Something that is all the same here, however, is that they were all sent to a hospital. If you or I were learning from this and working out how a typical incident gets handled, what can we take away from this? Well, I am looking at this and assuming that everyone involved in some incident gets sent to the hospital. So, when this person comes in with a paper cut, what would I or, more realistically, an AI that has only been trained on flawed data, assume is the correct course of action? This isn’t to say that the AI is biased toward sending people to the hospital, but the data most certainly is. AI models can quickly become flawed without good data, leading to inaccurate predictions, accidental bias, and unreliable outcomes. It’s like trying to build a house on poor foundations; it may seem stable initially, but eventually, it will collapse. This isn’t ideal when you plan on using the data it produces to increase your organization’s resilience and stability.
However, if we increase the variety of data in our set, these problems disappear. If we add different scenarios, there is a much lower chance of bias, and you are more likely to get results that appear in line with what a human might write. However, this leads us to our next problem: you need a lot of data to train an AI that can produce realistic results.
It’s also important to recognize that working with data comes with its own set of challenges and limitations. One such challenge is the ever-problematic topic of data privacy and data confidentiality. As we collect and use more data, there is an increased risk of data breaches and misuse. As such, we must ensure we use data ethically and responsibly. Furthermore, collecting and organizing large amounts of information is difficult. This is a problem when everyone wants to use something, but they don’t want to invest the data into reaching that goal. However, with technological advances, such as state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms and natural language processing, we are finding innovative ways to work with limited data. We can use models trained on similar datasets to get a starting point and many learning techniques, such as transfer learning and model fine-tuning. We can even use the new kid on the block retrieval-augmented generation to provide context to our LLMs.
Now, don’t be alarmed if I have lost you in the latter part of that sentence. Instead, see it as a lovely organic segue into discussing the need for skilled AI professionals. Of course, anyone nowadays can use Chat GPT to help them write anything; a report or a presentation, for example, are things Chat GPT can whip up quickly. Although I wouldn’t know, I always write my own reports and presentations. But when I say you need an AI professional, there are many subtleties to AI development that, much like data quality, many people wouldn’t consider at first. It’s like letting someone who has just learnt how to ride a bike build a motorcycle.
This investment in developing AI skills is crucial for creating effective and resilient AI tools. Skilled AI professionals have the knowledge and expertise to design, develop, and maintain AI systems that are secure, efficient, and reliable. With this expertise, businesses can create AI tools that can withstand unexpected events or cyberattacks.
Hiring AI professionals can help businesses stay up-to-date with the latest trends and best practices in the industry. As AI technology continues to evolve rapidly, businesses need access to professionals who can help them navigate the changing landscape and stay ahead of the curve.
With the right expertise, businesses can create AI systems that are secure, efficient, and reliable and that can help them adapt to unexpected events and challenges in the future. By partnering with external experts and investing in internal training and development programs, businesses can build a strong foundation for their AI initiatives and ensure long-term success.
Learn why digitalizing business continuity management is key to protecting organizations and the advantages of modernising your BCM efforts.
Learn moreSo now we have discussed what data we need to use, how to use it properly and efficiently, and the importance of hiring individuals who can execute these most effectively. Now, we need to talk about the elephant in the room. Legacy systems!
Integrating AI with legacy systems can be a challenge for many businesses. Legacy systems were not designed to work with AI-powered tools, and as a result, implementing AI can require significant changes to existing processes and infrastructure. However, you can take certain steps to ensure that your AI solutions can integrate with existing systems as well as processes and have the necessary infrastructure to support AI.
One solution is to use interfaces to connect AI-powered tools with legacy systems. These provide a standardized way for different software applications to communicate with each other, allowing businesses to integrate AI into their existing systems without having to completely overhaul their infrastructure. Another solution is to use middleware, which acts as a bridge between different software applications. Middleware can help businesses integrate their AI-powered tools with legacy systems by providing a layer of abstraction between the two, allowing them to communicate with each other without requiring significant changes to existing systems.
In addition to interfaces and middleware, businesses can also consider using cloud-based solutions for AI integration to reduce the cost of implementing AI-powered tools. One of the main advantages of cloud-based solutions is that they provide the necessary infrastructure for AI-powered tools without requiring businesses to invest in expensive hardware or make significant changes to their existing systems.
Cost can be a significant barrier to implementing AI-powered solutions, especially for small and medium-sized businesses. However, cloud-based solutions can also provide a low-cost alternative for businesses looking to implement AI in day-to-day business. Cloud-based solutions allow businesses to pay for only what they need and avoid the upfront costs of traditional hardware-based solutions. Furthermore, these services can be used without sacrificing all of your data to a third party. Using some of the techniques that I mentioned earlier, you can send data as and when you want to provide as much or as little context as you would like to the AI powering your tools.
The final thing I want to touch on comes from the age-old saying, “Measure twice, cut once!”. When considering AI-powered solutions, businesses must carefully evaluate the costs and benefits of implementing AI and develop a clear strategy to ensure their investment aligns with organizational goal which outlines the specific use cases, data sources and types of data required, and the infrastructure and resources needed to support AI in your business.
Ultimately, developing a clear AI strategy and ROI model is essential for businesses to successfully implement AI solutions. Once you have done this, the question shifts to whether you can access the correct data, how you can access this and whether you have the people who can access this. Once you have solved all of these problems, not even the sky is the limit.
When it comes to Resilience and AI, combining these two areas can provide businesses with unique opportunities to improve their resilience and ability to withstand unexpected events. Through the use of AI technologies, businesses can better predict potential risks, and take proactive measures to mitigate them and respond more quickly and effectively to disruptions.
However, it is important to recognize the implementation of AI for Resilience is not going to solve all our problems and in fact it creates a few new ones. There are still limitations and challenges businesses must be aware of, such as the potential for AI systems to produce biased or inaccurate predictions and the need for skilled professionals to manage and interpret the data generated by these systems. AI can be used in various areas of continuity management and crisis management processes.
Techniques and tools such as big data analytics, machine learning, natural language processing, automated event response, data security, and visualization can make crisis management faster, more effective, and more reliable. As the ethical, security, and privacy issues surrounding the use of AI are resolved, we will all see this technology used more widely and actively than it is today.
Overall, it is clear the integration of AI into business continuity management can significantly enhance the resilience and sustainability of businesses. However, this must be done thoughtfully and with a clear understanding of the potential risks and limitations involved. By doing so, businesses can better protect themselves and ensure they are well-positioned to thrive in an uncertain and rapidly changing world.
