The world we wanted
According to Bauer, for decades, Europe has prepared for the world it wanted to see rather than the one that could emerge. After the Cold War, there was a belief that democracy had won and that economic relationships would help secure peace. Europe reduced its military budgets and bought oil and gas from Russia, while greater prosperity in China was expected to encourage greater democracy. But that hasn’t been the case.
The warning signs from Russia came well before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but were largely ignored, while China continued to build its military capabilities, Rob Bauer continued. Today, the balance of power is fluid, with closer cooperation between Russia and China and growing competition between China and the US. For many years, Europe benefited from cheap goods from China, relatively cheap energy from Russia, and security underpinned by the United States. That model has changed, highlighting the need for Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security and carefully consider its strategic dependencies.
Preparing for war
He underlined that higher defense spending alone will not solve the problem. Europe currently lacks the capacity to produce everything it needs, making the involvement of business and industry essential. Yet, at the same time we lack standardization. For example, Europe has over five times as many types of major weapon systems* as the US. Greater standardization of products across European defense would simplify procurement, reduce costs, and help improve preparedness. Greater standardization of products across European defense would simplify procurement, reduce costs, and help improve preparedness.
Armies fight battles; countries fight wars
Bauer explained that today’s societies have effectively outsourced security to their armed forces, or at least that is the belief of a large part of the population. But if we enter a war and soldiers start dying, responsibility extends beyond the military. Preparing for war in peacetime therefore also means preparing society. And that’s when we come to sacrifice.
Sacrifice means doing something for the greater good, for your nation and society, he continued. In Ukraine, for example, the stakes for the two sides are fundamentally different. If Russia ends the war, its forces can return home. For Ukraine, what is at stake is its country, culture, and language. When those things are under threat, the willingness to make sacrifices for the greater good become much stronger. That idea of looking beyond individual interests also has relevance in everyday society. And therefore there is a need to readdress the balance between individualism and responsibility to others, to think not only about our own rights but about what we can contribute to a wider society.
Wicked problems
According to Bauer, the same principle of looking beyond the individual applies to how we tackle complex problems. Leaders may have responsibility for solving them, but that does not mean they have all the knowledge or skills required to do so. Different situations require different approaches. An emergency may be highly complex, but it demands clear direction and a command-driven response. A defined problem, on the other hand, can be addressed through established management processes. A “wicked problem” however, is very different. It has no single, clearly defined solution. Its causes are interconnected and the way forward has to be found step by step, by learning and adapting along the way.
Today, he continued, we face a series of wicked problems. Leaders bring experience but cannot have all the knowledge and skills needed to solve them. They need to draw on the people around them, mobilizing their expertise and enthusiasm, and making them feel part of both the problem and the solution. That also means giving people room to contribute and make mistakes.
Leading at scale
That becomes more challenging as organizations grow. He pointed out that as a Commander of around 60,000 people across the army, navy, air force, cyber, and special forces, it was impossible to know or communicate directly with everyone. In practice, leaders maintain regular contact with a relatively small group, who in turn connect with others in the organization. The challenge is having the tools and structures to reach through those layers, mobilize people, and create change at scale.
Trust
For this, or any kind of leadership to work, trust is essential, he continued. But while trust takes time to build, there are now many ways to undermine it. Social media is one example, with countless bots designed to influence people and erode trust. This matters because trust supports people’s willingness to contribute, take responsibility, and challenge assumptions. If people are afraid to speak up or say no, they become less innovative and less dedicated.
He believes that the same principles around trust apply at the highest levels of decision-making. In a democracy, military leaders need to be able to give politicians clear advice about what is militarily possible. If the forces available are not sufficient to achieve the ambition, there are two choices: lower the ambition or increase the forces.
European responsibility
According to Bauer, the same questions about ambition, capability, and what can realistically be achieved are also central to the choices facing Europe. Taking greater responsibility for security can strengthen Europe’s contribution to NATO and the transatlantic relationship, while reducing vulnerabilities created by critical dependencies. That means looking carefully at where those dependencies exist, across defense, technology, energy, manufacturing, raw materials, etc., and understanding where greater European capability could strengthen resilience.
Strategic autonomy
He concluded his talk by explaining that these types of choices are not always straightforward. Developing capabilities in Europe may sometimes be more expensive than sourcing them from established international partners, and greater autonomy does not mean that everything needs to be produced in Europe. The challenge is finding the right balance between cost, cooperation, and resilience. Where a capability is critical, the consequences of relying heavily on a single external source also need to be part of the decision.
“If you want peace, prepare for war: A Blueprint for Deterrence” is the name of Rob Bauer’s book, published by Nieuw Amsterdam in 2025.
Get in touch
If you want to know how you can accelerate mission readiness by engaging the training audience and building critical capabilities with fewer resources, get in touch.
Note: *The comparison covers different weapons systems in service across 11 selected land, air and naval categories, including tanks, artillery, combat aircraft, helicopters, missiles, warships and submarines, not the total number of weapons. Based on 2022 data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies and government sources (172 in Europe vs 32 in the US); also cited by the Danish Institute for International Studies in 2025.